October 31, 2008
Dr Doom? Gimme A Break
Roubini gained clout as the Economist who predicted the current Financial Crisis, in 2006.
He was scoffed at. After Roubini addressed the IMF, the MC snorted, "We'll all need a stiff drink after that one, won't we."
Roubini turned out to be right. And his Kool-Aid remains plenty harsh. He's been dubbed a Perma-Bear--a perpetual pessimist. Some call him a "seer". Like Nostradamus.
I'm just glad there are geniuses alive who can tell me what's going on.
Not only have we been in a recession since the beginning of 2008, but we are heading for, "Stag-Deflation". Some call that another word for Depression. Either way, he predicts the worst financial shock in the last 50 years. We hear that tossed around all the time. But unfortunately, this guy isn't wrong.
Fortunately, the last five years were rocky. So what. The situation remains messy. If not fluid.
I'll drink mine neat. The only meltdown I'm worried about tonight is my KitKat bar.
October 25, 2008
Disaster Fatigue
Bush was referring to natural disasters. Ike was the third major hurricane landfall this year behind Faye and Gustav. And Katrina will haunt the Gulf Coast until something worse makes us forget about it.
Similar to how the Summer Hurricanes made us forget that a 100-year flood gripped the Midwest for the entire month of June (15 years after the 100-year flood of 1993).
Or how what Alan Greenspan called the "Once-in-a-century Credit Tsunami" has made us forget about the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Or how rising commodity and gas prices and falling 401K plans and job security has made us forget about the 57" Plasma Television at Best Buy.
Storms are bad. 100 year storms are worse. Multiple 100 year storms, both natural and man made--converging at once--is now reality.
We know that storms hit throughout life: Rivers Flood. Levees Break. Stock Markets Crash. Planes Fly Into Buildings. Loved ones die.
Everyone reacts in their own way to disaster, but Doctors point out symptomatic similarities. Shock. Fatigue. Depressed mood. Anxiety.
Lehman Brothers had an office on the 80th floor of the World Trade Center. How many friends were lost. How did that effect the lives of those who survived?
In the days after 9/11, President Bush told Americans to go shopping.
Dull the pain of a nation with retail therapy. Go buy something.
Buy it on credit.
Now Bush says, "Wall Street got drunk".
Is it more accurate to say, "America is a drunk"?
If you get drunk one night, you blackout, throw up, have a hang over and hope you didn't do anything too stupid.
When you are an alcoholic, you've been at it for years. There is a psychological and physiological addiction in place. A disease. A lifelong battle of recovery. One day at a time. And then, there is the hereditary risk that you may pass the disease on to future generations.
Time for the long look in the mirror.
October 19, 2008
McCain Not Feeling Sorry For Himself, But Admits He Would Mess Up As POTUS
In his Interview with Fox News Sunday, McCain insists he won't "dwell on it".
"I've had a wonderful life. I have to go back and live in Arizona, and be in the United States Senate representing them, and with a wonderful family, and daughters and sons that I'm so proud of, and a life that's been blessed."
I guess when the movie '300' represents your ideal version of self, you shouldn't be surprised when you eventually get massacred.
[After he loses], "Don't feel sorry for John McCain, and John McCain will be concentrating on not feeling sorry for himself."
Then backtracking slightly he explained, "I'm the luckiest guy you have ever interviewed and will ever interview. I'm the most fortunate man on earth, and I thank God for it every single day."
McCain's statements are consistent with his Gambler-mentality and accomplish a two-fold agenda:
1. Flaunt his glimmer of hope (call it a punchers chance) because as a gambler, you have to call your shot, and he knows the greater the odds, the bigger the thrill... if your ticket comes in.
2. If it doesn't, you must be prepared with a story to tell publicly and to yourself (ideally one which exonerates you of any guilt. See, Chicago Cubs/ Bartman, Steve & Goat, Billy)
Did Sarah Palin read the fine print where it stipulates she'll be falling on the sword?
Call it a survival mechanism--and what is John McCain if not a survivor?
The Power of Self-Delusion
John McCain continued on Fox News, "I’ve been in too many campaigns, my friend, not to — not to sense that things are headed our way."
John McCain clearly consults this "sense" for the most important decisions he makes. Amazingly, he's enjoyed enough positive outcomes to consider himself the luckiest guy on Earth.
That's how you know he will blame everything on Sarah Palin.
From the same interview, "Asked if Gov. Sarah Palin has become a drag on his ticket, McCain said, "As a cold political calculation, I could not be more pleased."
Sarah Palin, the greatest gamble of John McCain's life. At one point after the RNC--pure political genius.
Now relegated to a pleasing, "cold political calculation".
With Palin, McCain sensed that he could take all the credit if it worked out, and blame her if he failed.
One Last Thing
In the final debate, John McCain stated, "you have to look at the words."
Same interview, "I love being the underdog. You know, every time that I've gotten ahead, somehow I've messed it up."
When you look at the words, this is a clear admission by John McCain that he'd somehow mess things up as President of The United States.
As lovable and virtuous as the underdog is, the President of The United States is the furthest role on Earth from that of "the Underdog".
If elected President, you haven't just "gotten ahead"-- You are The Head.
Read the fine print America...
McCain doesn't even want the job.
October 11, 2008
McCain Should Concede His Campaign
Your presidential campaign has officially Imploded.
John McCain will backpedal significantly over the next 24 days in an attempt to save the remnants of his good name.
Sarah Palin believes she is a still a threat for 2012 and will continue to make a joke of herself accordingly.
October 9, 2008
Stranger Than Fiction: Bartlett Consults Obama
BARACK OBAMA knocks on the front door of a 300-year-old New Hampshire farmhouse while his Secret Service detail waits in the driveway. The door opens and OBAMA is standing face to face with former President JED BARTLET.
BARTLET Senator.
OBAMA Mr. President.
BARTLET You seem startled.
OBAMA I didn’t expect you to answer the door yourself.
BARTLET I didn’t expect you to be getting beat by John McCain and a LancĂ´me rep who thinks “The Flintstones” was based on a true story, so let’s call it even.
OBAMA Yes, sir.
BARTLET Come on in.
BARTLET leads OBAMA into his study.
BARTLET That was a hell of a convention.
OBAMA Thank you, I was proud of it.
BARTLET I meant the Republicans. The Us versus Them-a-thon. As a Democrat I was surprised to learn that I don’t like small towns, God, people with jobs or America. I’ve been a little out of touch but is there a mandate that the vice president be skilled at field dressing a moose —
OBAMA Look —
BARTLET — and selling Air Force Two on eBay?
OBAMA Joke all you want, Mr. President, but it worked.
BARTLET Imagine my surprise. What can I do for you, kid?
OBAMA I’m interested in your advice.
BARTLET I can’t give it to you.
OBAMA Why not?
BARTLET I’m supporting McCain.
OBAMA Why?
BARTLET He’s promised to eradicate evil and that was always on my “to do” list.
OBAMA O.K. —
BARTLET And he’s surrounded himself, I think, with the best possible team to get us out of an economic crisis. Why, Sarah Palin just said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had “gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers.” Can you spot the error in that statement?
OBAMA Yes, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t funded by taxpayers.
BARTLET Well, at least they are now. Kind of reminds you of the time Bush said that Social Security wasn’t a government program. He was only off by a little — Social Security is the largest government program.
OBAMA I appreciate your sense of humor, sir, but I really could use your advice.
BARTLET Well, it seems to me your problem is a lot like the problem I had twice.
OBAMA Which was?
BARTLET A huge number of Americans thought I thought I was superior to them.
OBAMA And?
BARTLET I was.
OBAMA I mean, how did you overcome that?
BARTLET I won’t lie to you, being fictional was a big advantage.
OBAMA What do you mean?
BARTLET I’m a fictional president. You’re dreaming right now, Senator.
OBAMA I’m asleep?
BARTLET Yes, and you’re losing a ton of white women.
OBAMA Yes, sir.
BARTLET I mean tons.
OBAMA I understand.
BARTLET I didn’t even think there were that many white women.
OBAMA I see the numbers, sir. What do they want from me?
BARTLET I’ve been married to a white woman for 40 years and I still don’t know what she wants from me.
OBAMA How did you do it?
BARTLET Well, I say I’m sorry a lot.
OBAMA I don’t mean your marriage, sir. I mean how did you get America on your side?
BARTLET There again, I didn’t have to be president of America, I just had to be president of the people who watched “The West Wing.”
OBAMA That would make it easier.
BARTLET You’d do very well on NBC. Thursday nights in the old “ER” time slot with “30 Rock” as your lead-in, you’d get seven, seven-five in the demo with a 20, 22 share — you’d be selling $450,000 minutes.
OBAMA What the hell does that mean?
BARTLET TV talk. I thought you’d be interested.
OBAMA I’m not. They pivoted off the argument that I was inexperienced to the criticism that I’m — wait for it — the Messiah, who, by the way, was a community organizer. When I speak I try to lead with inspiration and aptitude. How is that a liability?
BARTLET Because the idea of American exceptionalism doesn’t extend to Americans being exceptional. If you excelled academically and are able to casually use 690 SAT words then you might as well have the press shoot video of you giving the finger to the Statue of Liberty while the Dixie Chicks sing the University of the Taliban fight song. The people who want English to be the official language of the United States are uncomfortable with their leaders being fluent in it.
OBAMA You’re saying race doesn’t have anything to do with it?
BARTLET I wouldn’t go that far. Brains made me look arrogant but they make you look uppity. Plus, if you had a black daughter —
OBAMA I have two.
BARTLET — who was 17 and pregnant and unmarried and the father was a teenager hoping to launch a rap career with “Thug Life” inked across his chest, you’d come in fifth behind Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and a ficus.
OBAMA You’re not cheering me up.
BARTLET Is that what you came here for?
OBAMA No, but it wouldn’t kill you.
BARTLET Have you tried doing a two-hour special or a really good Christmas show?
OBAMA Sir —
BARTLET Hang on. Home run. Right here. Is there any chance you could get Michelle pregnant before the fall sweeps?
OBAMA The problem is we can’t appear angry. Bush called us the angry left. Did you see anyone in Denver who was angry?
BARTLET Well ... let me think. ...We went to war against the wrong country, Osama bin Laden just celebrated his seventh anniversary of not being caught either dead or alive, my family’s less safe than it was eight years ago, we’ve lost trillions of dollars, millions of jobs, thousands of lives and we lost an entire city due to bad weather. So, you know ... I’m a little angry.
OBAMA What would you do?
BARTLET GET ANGRIER! Call them liars, because that’s what they are. Sarah Palin didn’t say “thanks but no thanks” to the Bridge to Nowhere. She just said “Thanks.” You were raised by a single mother on food stamps — where does a guy with eight houses who was legacied into Annapolis get off calling you an elitist? And by the way, if you do nothing else, take that word back. Elite is a good word, it means well above average. I’d ask them what their problem is with excellence. While you’re at it, I want the word “patriot” back. McCain can say that the transcendent issue of our time is the spread of Islamic fanaticism or he can choose a running mate who doesn’t know the Bush doctrine from the Monroe Doctrine, but he can’t do both at the same time and call it patriotic. They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it. McCain decried agents of intolerance, then chose a running mate who had to ask if she was allowed to ban books from a public library. It’s not bad enough she thinks the planet Earth was created in six days 6,000 years ago complete with a man, a woman and a talking snake, she wants schools to teach the rest of our kids to deny geology, anthropology, archaeology and common sense too? It’s not bad enough she’s forcing her own daughter into a loveless marriage to a teenage hood, she wants the rest of us to guide our daughters in that direction too? It’s not enough that a woman shouldn’t have the right to choose, it should be the law of the land that she has to carry and deliver her rapist’s baby too? I don’t know whether or not Governor Palin has the tenacity of a pit bull, but I know for sure she’s got the qualifications of one. And you’re worried about seeming angry? You could eat their lunch, make them cry and tell their mamas about it and God himself would call it restrained. There are times when you are simply required to be impolite. There are times when condescension is called for!
OBAMA Good to get that off your chest?
BARTLET Am I keeping you from something?
OBAMA Well, it’s not as if I didn’t know all of that and it took you like 20 minutes to say.
BARTLET I know, I have a problem, but admitting it is the first step.
OBAMA What’s the second step?
BARTLET I don’t care.
OBAMA So what about hope? Chuck it for outrage and put-downs?
BARTLET No. You’re elite, you can do both. Four weeks ago you had the best week of your campaign, followed — granted, inexplicably — by the worst week of your campaign. And you’re still in a statistical dead heat. You’re a 47-year-old black man with a foreign-sounding name who went to Harvard and thinks devotion to your country and lapel pins aren’t the same thing and you’re in a statistical tie with a war hero and a Cinemax heroine. To these aged eyes, Senator, that’s what progress looks like. You guys got four debates. Get out of my house and go back to work.
OBAMA Wait, what is it you always used to say? When you hit a bump on the show and your people were down and frustrated? You’d give them a pep talk and then you’d always end it with something. What was it ...?
BARTLET “Break’s over.”
Today, Barack Obama's campaign purchased 30-Minutes of CBS air time on October 29th.
Not quite the 2-hour Christmas Special Bartlett suggested, but maybe we'll find out Michelle's pregnant.
October 4, 2008
We Interrupt Your Football Sunday To Bring You These Messages
In the section dedicated to military activities, "that do not involve killing insurgants", Patreaus called "information operations" "critical".
The Washington Post ran an article Friday titled, "U.S. to Fund Pro-American Publicity in Iraq" that outlines a $300 Million Defense Department initiative to expand and consolidate "information/ psychological operations".
Regardless of where we argue you can find the frontline of the War on Terror, in all likelyhood, the real frontline is the Middle Eastern Propaganda War.
The Four Companies awarded with contracts are; SOS International, Washington-based Lincoln Group, Alexandria-based MPRI, and Los Angeles-based Leonie Industries. I encourage you to tour their websites.
Very disturbing stuff.
I was worried when I saw "Los Angeles-based" that Leonie Industries might be a "Wag the Dog" type film company and decided to focus my research there.
The trick with all propaganda is that the audience can't know it is listening to a sales pitch. How does Leonie Industries tackle that objective?
"Our communications products are designed to appeal to local audiences. By leveraging existing relationships with sports and entertainment celebrities, prominent regional companies, and business and political leaders, Leonie Industries delivers messages through credible voices with a local feel."
Sports. Entertainment. Celebrities. Prominent companies. Business leaders. Politicians. (Christ, you left out Religion!)
To steal from Chuck Pahlaniuk, "I am the dull sinking feeling in Sue's stomach."
Each of these entities leverage our lives in their own unique way (Don't ask me about fantasy baseball).
But to hear them mentioned in the same sentance is totally... undignified.
Especially when you consider how a marketing company like Leonie gets so good at what it does.
(By practicing on us.)
The article further points out, "While U.S. law prohibits the use of government money to direct propaganda at U.S. audiences, the "statement of work" included in the proposal, written by the U.S. Joint Contracting Command in Iraq, notes the need to "communicate effectively with our strategic audiences (i.e. Iraqi, pan-Arabic, International, and U.S. audiences) to gain widespread acceptance of [U.S. and Iraqi government] core themes and messages."
Widespread acceptance.
Has Western Culture ever looked so good?
What a bunch of horseshit.
Enjoy your game.
October 3, 2008
John McCain Says "Fuck You" To Michigan
When John McCain pulled the plug on his campaign in Michigan, he turned his back on one of the most troubled states in America. Why?
Because he's a gambler. And a gambler's Mantra is always, "Know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em."
John McCain took his chips off the table in Michigan. He redistributed them in Maine. He is rolling the dice on ONE electoral vote.
Marc Ambinder at Atlantic Monthly describes the numbers behind McCain's shift. He explains that if everything goes as planned and Obama wins every state Kerry won plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada-- the electoral college will be tied at 269.
Maine divides its four electoral votes by county and then offers an additional two to whoever wins the state. McCain sees an opening to win one additional delegate and take the nomination.
McCain might be consider Maine the ace up his sleeve, but did he consider that it would come across as 'Fuck You' to Michigan?
The Obama camp should pounce on the symbolism of his actions:
"The Maverick is either scared of a fight, or puts Politics first."
Maybe McCain is staging a bluff and thinks he can still pull out Michigan if enough Democrats stay home. Maybe he wants Howard Dean wasting time in Maine so he can tinker with Pennsylvania and Ohio. Maybe McCain's only getting warmed up, and the really weird and desperate stuff is yet to come.
30 days and counting. Keep you head on a swivel.
October 2, 2008
Bailout Leaves Some Quivering, Others Consult Inner-Fletcher
All those butterflied Pork sandwiches were good preparation for the debate over the $700 Billion bailout plan. Before it passed, the Republican Congressional opposition highlighted some of its newly aquired "Pork".
For fun, I targeted the $2 Million earmarked for "wooden arrows for kids".
Essentially, two Oregon Senators lobbied to get Yes votes from three Oregon Congressmen by inserting a provision that will repeal a 43-cent excise tax on blunt-nosed wooden arrows distributed as training tools to children by the Myrtle Point, OR based manufacturer 'Rose City Archery'.
Does all that mean Rose City Archery was worth saving? I don't know.
I have something of one foot in the city, and one out in the country. I live on the West Side of Chicago, but as mentioned, went to school and still spend a lot of vacation time in Iowa.
This "Rurban" lifestyle gives me a nice balance. I feel comfortable in the concrete jungle and in a cornfield.
But the price for this balance is less than total immersion in either lifestyles. By dividing my time, I knowingly divide myself. Every now and then, I feel cheated: There are some things I am resigned to just never fully understand. Appreciate, yes. Understand fully, no.
That said, I spoke to my college roommate today. Mike lives in Iowa and understands those things that I don't. We talked about the Bailout and he mentioned, of all things, that he was sharpening his arrow heads.
His thinking? "Don't know how bad it'll get (Chuckle) but while everyone's shitting down their leg, I'm gonna go out and kill a Buck or three and feed my family."
No money for meat. No money for shotgun shells even. But there'll always be arrows. Which is great, as long as you know how to use them.
I didn't ask if he uses wooden shafts. (He once strangled a deer with his bare hands). But many of the alternatives are made from oil-byproducts. Which by proxy makes Rose City Wooden Arrows-- made from fine Port Orford cedar-- a symbol of American resilience and survival. Especially pertinent in these coming lean times.
Rose City Archery, and the arrows it manufactures, just might represent the skills and values we've lost as the generations have migrated from farm to city. But now it is saved, and maybe one day we'll look back at a generation of self sufficient Bow-Hunters who learned their trade using Rose City tax-free arrows.
I'm yet to sit in a tree stand and shoot a bow in the direction of an animate object. But I do know Venison is good eats. And depending on the context... so is Pork.
October 1, 2008
UFF DA!
No, not in the way that appealed to Hitler.. Instead, I'm talking about the comparison many analysts are now making between our current financial mess the Scandinavian Economic melt down of the early 1990's.
According to the Norges, Swedes, and Fins, the way out of this is basically Socialism. (And even then we're looking at a legitimate half-decade recession).
Which would be better of course, than the full on, Japan-style Lost-Decade. (Made worse by the procrastination and inaction of their Government).
In other news, video game sales are expected to stay strong as folks stay home in an attempt to get the most bang for their entertainment buck.
"Uh, Hi. My name is Sue, and I am a recovering Grand Theft Auto junkie..."
Video Games? Great.
Every time a new GTA video game is announced my pits start to drip (coldly, down my shanks) as I recall the college semester I lost playing "GTA: 3". And the time I quit my job for "Vice City".
I thought were trying to avoid the lost Decade, not veer (from the couch, with sore thumbs) towards it...
On the other hand, maybe this is just the thing America needs to reestablish its core values.