Unravelling John McCain's Decision Making Process

We played a lot of Texas Hold 'Em there for awhile. Like Harley Davidson's and breast implants, when things were good, it was the thing to do. All the rage.

Yet in all the hands in all the games we ever played, only once did any of us get the luckiest hand of all, The Royal Flush. The odds of getting a Royal Flush are 649,739-to-1.

And I was the one. (Don't we all believe we're the one at some point?)

In the background that night was the movie 'Lucky Number Slevin' as I danced around Drew's basement taking self-righteous camera-phone pictures of my luckiness.

The plot twists in 'Lucky Number Slevin' are based on a classic confidence game known as "The Kansas City Shuffle". A simple con man's game of misdirection summarized as, "When everyone's looking right, you look left."

Tonight, 60 Minutes interviewed both candidates. John McCain showed his hand three times:

1. John McCain's use of the term "Ponzi Scheme" to summarize his thoughts on the troubled economy. A Ponzi Scheme? I had to look it up. Apparently, it promises huge returns, preys on investor naivete and is described as similar to (but slightly different than) a Pyramid Scheme, a Bubble (or the "greater fool" theory), and our very own U.S. Social Security System.

2. When asked if he thought Sarah Palin was ready to be President, John McCain said, "Absolutely," as he glanced slightly to his left. Asked again McCain said, "Absolutely," and glanced to the left again. Thanks to Cosmo Magazine, my wife-- and every woman in America-- knows what it means when men look to the left. The Bastard's lying, girlfriend.

3. At the conclusion of the interview, John McCain described himself as "the luckiest person you will ever be around." Interesting and troubling description of yourself-- when you're running for President. Did a little research and found this Washington Post article from the 2000 primary, among others, which explain that John McCain is ridiculously superstitious. Basically he might as well run as the "Lucky Feather" candidate.

From those three tells, we can read this:

1. John McCain was a long shot, his campaign was out of money, dead in the water and back in the polls. He needed to get lucky. He needed something big. He looked for an opportunity. He pulled a textbook Kansas City Shuffle.

He decided to back the wildly unpopular Troop Surge in Iraq. It is one huge reason why he is the Republican nominee today. I guarantee you (because he talks about it non-stop) McCain considers this one of the finest feathers in his Lucky cap.

2. John McCain lied when he said Sarah Palin is ready to be President. He said it with his eyes. But the hype of naming her his Vice President is, to him, further proof of his incredible luck. Yet another Maverick/ Kansas City Shuffle. You look right, I'll looked left.

3. The antithesis to the "Ponzi Scheme" is the "Value Investment". Essentially, instead of the Ponzi belief that a piece of crap might be overpriced but "a greater fool" will buy it at an even higher price, the Value Investment is the belief in finding a great investment at an undervalued price.

The Value Investment was perfected by Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, the richest man in the world, and supporter of Barack Obama. One share of Berkshire Hathaway stock sells for $125,000, the highest-price on the NYSE. And BTW, in 2003, Buffett called mortgage-backed securities, "financial weapons of mass destruction". This guy knows what he's doing, and it doesn't involve luck.

Conclusion: Whereas Barack Obama has the support of the greatest living economic mind in the world, John McCain is recklessly living out the con-man principles of his personal superstitions by betting that America is 'the Greater Fool' to his Lucky Feather.

And that's from one lucky bastard to another.