We played a lot of Texas Hold 'Em there for awhile. Like Harley Davidson's and breast implants, when things were good, it was the thing to do. All the rage.
Yet in all the hands in all the games we ever played, only once did any of us get the luckiest hand of all, The Royal Flush. The odds of getting a Royal Flush are 649,739-to-1.
And I was the one. (Don't we all believe we're the one at some point?)
In the background that night was the movie 'Lucky Number Slevin' as I danced around Drew's basement taking self-righteous camera-phone pictures of my luckiness.
The plot twists in 'Lucky Number Slevin' are based on a classic confidence game known as "The Kansas City Shuffle". A simple con man's game of misdirection summarized as, "When everyone's looking right, you look left."
Tonight, 60 Minutes interviewed both candidates. John McCain showed his hand three times:
1. John McCain's use of the term "Ponzi Scheme" to summarize his thoughts on the troubled economy. A Ponzi Scheme? I had to look it up. Apparently, it promises huge returns, preys on investor naivete and is described as similar to (but slightly different than) a Pyramid Scheme, a Bubble (or the "greater fool" theory), and our very own U.S. Social Security System.
2. When asked if he thought Sarah Palin was ready to be President, John McCain said, "Absolutely," as he glanced slightly to his left. Asked again McCain said, "Absolutely," and glanced to the left again. Thanks to Cosmo Magazine, my wife-- and every woman in America-- knows what it means when men look to the left. The Bastard's lying, girlfriend.
3. At the conclusion of the interview, John McCain described himself as "the luckiest person you will ever be around." Interesting and troubling description of yourself-- when you're running for President. Did a little research and found this Washington Post article from the 2000 primary, among others, which explain that John McCain is ridiculously superstitious. Basically he might as well run as the "Lucky Feather" candidate.
From those three tells, we can read this:
1. John McCain was a long shot, his campaign was out of money, dead in the water and back in the polls. He needed to get lucky. He needed something big. He looked for an opportunity. He pulled a textbook Kansas City Shuffle.
He decided to back the wildly unpopular Troop Surge in Iraq. It is one huge reason why he is the Republican nominee today. I guarantee you (because he talks about it non-stop) McCain considers this one of the finest feathers in his Lucky cap.
2. John McCain lied when he said Sarah Palin is ready to be President. He said it with his eyes. But the hype of naming her his Vice President is, to him, further proof of his incredible luck. Yet another Maverick/ Kansas City Shuffle. You look right, I'll looked left.
3. The antithesis to the "Ponzi Scheme" is the "Value Investment". Essentially, instead of the Ponzi belief that a piece of crap might be overpriced but "a greater fool" will buy it at an even higher price, the Value Investment is the belief in finding a great investment at an undervalued price.
The Value Investment was perfected by Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, the richest man in the world, and supporter of Barack Obama. One share of Berkshire Hathaway stock sells for $125,000, the highest-price on the NYSE. And BTW, in 2003, Buffett called mortgage-backed securities, "financial weapons of mass destruction". This guy knows what he's doing, and it doesn't involve luck.
Conclusion: Whereas Barack Obama has the support of the greatest living economic mind in the world, John McCain is recklessly living out the con-man principles of his personal superstitions by betting that America is 'the Greater Fool' to his Lucky Feather.
And that's from one lucky bastard to another.
September 26, 2008
September 19, 2008
The Sarah Palin Mistake-- Too Late For Romney?
The New Republic posted an article today spelling out how Sarah Palin is Dan Quayle 2.0.
In less than a week, the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate has officially become a terrible miscalculation. The status of her bubble is precarious.
A week ago, the mistake was supposed to be the choice of Joe Biden instead of Hilary. But that was a shortsided knee-jerk attempt to force Obama to second guess himself.
But with the Palin wave losing steam, now more than ever, the Biden choice appears the sober, pragmatic and wise.
Further highlighting the poor judgement behind the Sarah Palin choice is Issue #1: The economy.
Mitt Romney would have provided McCain the kind of economic expertise and legitimacy of judgement he now painfully lacks. The kind of expertise that could have helped McCain run the country, not just win an election.
'Country First', right John?
Maverick my foot. You want to be a real Maverick, own up to your mistake and ditch Eagleton 2.0 for someone a little more stable.
In less than a week, the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate has officially become a terrible miscalculation. The status of her bubble is precarious.
A week ago, the mistake was supposed to be the choice of Joe Biden instead of Hilary. But that was a shortsided knee-jerk attempt to force Obama to second guess himself.
But with the Palin wave losing steam, now more than ever, the Biden choice appears the sober, pragmatic and wise.
Further highlighting the poor judgement behind the Sarah Palin choice is Issue #1: The economy.
Mitt Romney would have provided McCain the kind of economic expertise and legitimacy of judgement he now painfully lacks. The kind of expertise that could have helped McCain run the country, not just win an election.
'Country First', right John?
Maverick my foot. You want to be a real Maverick, own up to your mistake and ditch Eagleton 2.0 for someone a little more stable.
September 13, 2008
I like IKE
Much has been made of the fact that Hurricane Gustav helped the Republicans because it kept 'W' away, among other things.
As far as the news cycle, I think everyone wins. Things slow down when the media is forced to cover a slow moving Hurricane. Reporters are actually given a moment to come up for air. Perhaps take a step back. Perhaps follow up on all the leads in that Anne Kilkenny email. Fact check the flub coming out of Palin's mouth.
Less than a week ago, I myself jigged gleefully atop the popped remnants of the Tom Brady (and Boston by proxy) bubble. The moment their tide has gone out, we armchair quarterbacks love to sack the Superstars and Cinderellas we've created.
Next they'll uncover a few dark secrets, and get to the bottom of her blatant lies. Then, someone will probably post a picture of Sarah Palin's cellulite, or worse-- crotch.
From there, the flood gates are open.
This time, Hurricane Ike helps the Democrats. First, just as every September 11th will remind us of 9/11, all hurricanes remind us of Katrina. We just can't get the catch phrases of debacle out of our collective mind. "Mission Accomplished". "Heck of Job, Brownie".
As far as the news cycle, I think everyone wins. Things slow down when the media is forced to cover a slow moving Hurricane. Reporters are actually given a moment to come up for air. Perhaps take a step back. Perhaps follow up on all the leads in that Anne Kilkenny email. Fact check the flub coming out of Palin's mouth.
Thus better reporting.
Given the media-lull of a major storm, I'm anticipating the surge of political stories that rip into Sarah Palin. The first hint of what's on the horizon for her is the MSNBC article titled, "Palin's Bubble: To Bulge or Burst?"
I have decided to NOT read this article. Why? Because with the daily hemorrhage of news-- and in light of what happened last week to United Airlines,-- the best way to gain the composite pulse of America is to only the read Headline (if that).
Especially true when a headline suggests there exists such a thing as, "Palin's Bubble".
Average Americans know what a Bubble is.
You don't need to read about it when you could write the damn thing. You've lived through the "Dot Com" bubble. The "Real Estate" Bubble. The "Beanie Baby" Bubble. And the "Britney Spears" Bubble.
Ultimately, we know what the Media does to all bubbles. Like a toddler chasing bubbles on a backyard sugar high -- they Pop them. With merciless glee.
Less than a week ago, I myself jigged gleefully atop the popped remnants of the Tom Brady (and Boston by proxy) bubble. The moment their tide has gone out, we armchair quarterbacks love to sack the Superstars and Cinderellas we've created.
It might be a bit evil, but it makes life interesting.Now, it is only a matter of time before Sarah Palin's Bubble bursts. It may bulge a bit more, and it may already be too late. Regardless, the Pop has already begun by the mere suggestion that she has a Bubble-- to Pop.
Next they'll uncover a few dark secrets, and get to the bottom of her blatant lies. Then, someone will probably post a picture of Sarah Palin's cellulite, or worse-- crotch.
From there, the flood gates are open.
September 11, 2008
Madness? This is Politics!
Newsweek once wrote that Dick Cheney's idealized version of himself is Burt Reynold's character from 'Deliverance' (Spectacularly full of himself and tragically poor in judgement).
In the book, "The Greatest Story Ever Sold" Frank Rich explains that Politics is simply a matter of who can package and deliver the better story.
The McCain-Palin idealized version of self-- and the story they are trying to sell to the voters in 2008-- is that of Frank Miller's '300'.
McCain as the Warrior King, his Hardcore Queen Palin, and a damn Southside Liberal about to get kicked into a hole (someone has a cheeky temper).
The Backstory: As a child forced out on his own into the world, the hero is ultimately backed against the wall of a tiny cave. In his cave he finds the resolve to face-- and slay-- his fears. Based on this experience from his youth, the hero emerges ready to lead his people.
Meanwhile the world is in turmoil: As King, he rules with his gut but relies heavily on his Queen, who is even more hardcore than he. The way of the Spartan Warrior is hard, cold and ruthless, and she is all that, having no qualms about doing whatever it takes for the cause.
The Villain: The decadent Xerxes, tall and dark, promises basically nothing but massive orgies and a huge government. His million man "Persian" army clearly threatens the Spartan way of life.
In the book, "The Greatest Story Ever Sold" Frank Rich explains that Politics is simply a matter of who can package and deliver the better story.
The McCain-Palin idealized version of self-- and the story they are trying to sell to the voters in 2008-- is that of Frank Miller's '300'.
McCain as the Warrior King, his Hardcore Queen Palin, and a damn Southside Liberal about to get kicked into a hole (someone has a cheeky temper).
The Backstory: As a child forced out on his own into the world, the hero is ultimately backed against the wall of a tiny cave. In his cave he finds the resolve to face-- and slay-- his fears. Based on this experience from his youth, the hero emerges ready to lead his people.
Meanwhile the world is in turmoil: As King, he rules with his gut but relies heavily on his Queen, who is even more hardcore than he. The way of the Spartan Warrior is hard, cold and ruthless, and she is all that, having no qualms about doing whatever it takes for the cause.
The Villain: The decadent Xerxes, tall and dark, promises basically nothing but massive orgies and a huge government. His million man "Persian" army clearly threatens the Spartan way of life.
The decadent Persian King, Obama, tall, dark, godly, with all those supporters behind him and that convincing rhetoric.
Ultimately: their numbers might be small, but they whoop it up, and their simple message of "Country First" sure is enthusiastic. The Spartans are never-say-die kinda group (until they all die) but for them its all about having a good story.
The story lives on: Told then, first to sell Congress, and later to rouse the Army as they prepared to battle once more against Persia. Now the story is told again, the themes and grand overtures having been rewritten as McCain-Palin 2008.
Watch the movie again, then vote for yourself. But remember, Politics is about telling and selling stories.
Looking forward by looking back: Unfortunately, the Spartans in '300' were undone because they forgot to cover their ass... Undone and out-maneuvered by the type of person whom they discard and reject outright for being different . . . from their idealized version of self.
September 9, 2008
My Two Cents on The Lipstick Deal
Sarah Palin said the diference between a pitbull and a hockey mom was lipstick. Obama called McCain's economic plan akin to putting, "lipstick on a pig."
The Republican's demanded an apology.
Obama went on David Letterman and made fun of the whole thing.
But he got one thing wrong. He said "Lipstick on a Pig" is a common expression, "at least in Illinois".
Now my Grandfather, Granpa Joe, has a been an icon of "expressions" on the Western edge of Illinois for decades.
And his expression is, "It fits like a Saddle on a Sow."
Now imagine a Pig fitted with a saddle. It seems like a saddle would fit pretty good right?
Right.
But it is also pointless.
Like this argument.
The Republican's demanded an apology.
Obama went on David Letterman and made fun of the whole thing.
But he got one thing wrong. He said "Lipstick on a Pig" is a common expression, "at least in Illinois".
Now my Grandfather, Granpa Joe, has a been an icon of "expressions" on the Western edge of Illinois for decades.
And his expression is, "It fits like a Saddle on a Sow."
Now imagine a Pig fitted with a saddle. It seems like a saddle would fit pretty good right?
Right.
But it is also pointless.
Like this argument.
September 8, 2008
Making It Black And White And Easy To Understand
Grasping for meaning and reading comments on Economist.com about Monday's Government seizure of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, I came across this from "muggeridge".
"Somehow it still does not feel safe out there in the land of globalised trading as banks trade on mortgage debt according to their default potential. Betting on failure is not healthy for anyone...it should be banned immediately."
Upon reading that, I was taken back in time to a $20 crap table at the Las Vegas Aladdin. It was a family trip and someone decided we should go see the Steve Wyrick Magic show.
Both proved to be bad decisions. First, Steve Wyrick is an unconvincing magician. Second, when you only have $80 in your pocket, do not play the $20 table.
Be aware that at night in Vegas, the $5 tables go away. And that Craps is a game of critical mass. At its best a Crap table is overflowing with bets, breasts, and booze. Meaning = the table is packed. With lots of lady luck. And everyone's drunk.
Our $20 table had none of these qualities. But still, the "Magic Show" didn't start for awhile. And we needed some action to distract us from how terrible Aladdin's Castle was.
We started out decent enough. Getting drunk. Up a little. Then a loud group rolled in to occuppy the opposite side of the table. Which at first, looked like another step towards critical mass. But after a roll or two I realized the other side of the table was doing something very bad. Evil even.
They were betting against the table. They were betting the Don't Pass line.
I peered closely and realized the people at the end of the table were actually Vampires.
They were certainly sucking the life out to of the table. Cheering every time someone lost money. Then it was my turn to roll.
The placed huge gobs of chips in the nether regions of the table and waited for me to stake my meager existance on the Pass Line. (I swear one of the Vampires licked his sanguine lips while leaning in. Probably so he could breathe-deep the smell of fear emanating from my side of the table.)
Four was the point-- bad odds. And with the hissing snakes waiting for me; their open-collared shirts, sunken eyes and black intentions-- I might have had more momentum swimming against the rip-tide at La Jolla Beach.
The moment when you for the first time, truly respect the power of the Ocean-- is always violent. The Ocean flashes its utter dominance with such flippant ease that you are left unaware of your predicament until your body has already been jackhammered into the rippled sandy bottom.
Now you know how frantic feels and you fight like hell. Eventually, massaging your battered ego, thankful to be alive (also, truly, for the first time), you drag yourself safely to shore.
But my Vegas-buffet-garlic-breath was useless against the undead powers of evil that night in Aladdin's Castle. I crapped out.
Rolling the dice against evil did however show me a glimpse of something. That evil intentions are to be respected (vampires at the crap table and vampires in the stock pit, included). But not the way you respect the Ocean.
Seas swell. Tides come and go like Time itself. Sea-changes are made. These things you can not choose. Evil and Good are.
"Somehow it still does not feel safe out there in the land of globalised trading as banks trade on mortgage debt according to their default potential. Betting on failure is not healthy for anyone...it should be banned immediately."
Upon reading that, I was taken back in time to a $20 crap table at the Las Vegas Aladdin. It was a family trip and someone decided we should go see the Steve Wyrick Magic show.
Both proved to be bad decisions. First, Steve Wyrick is an unconvincing magician. Second, when you only have $80 in your pocket, do not play the $20 table.
Be aware that at night in Vegas, the $5 tables go away. And that Craps is a game of critical mass. At its best a Crap table is overflowing with bets, breasts, and booze. Meaning = the table is packed. With lots of lady luck. And everyone's drunk.
Our $20 table had none of these qualities. But still, the "Magic Show" didn't start for awhile. And we needed some action to distract us from how terrible Aladdin's Castle was.
We started out decent enough. Getting drunk. Up a little. Then a loud group rolled in to occuppy the opposite side of the table. Which at first, looked like another step towards critical mass. But after a roll or two I realized the other side of the table was doing something very bad. Evil even.
They were betting against the table. They were betting the Don't Pass line.
I peered closely and realized the people at the end of the table were actually Vampires.
They were certainly sucking the life out to of the table. Cheering every time someone lost money. Then it was my turn to roll.
The placed huge gobs of chips in the nether regions of the table and waited for me to stake my meager existance on the Pass Line. (I swear one of the Vampires licked his sanguine lips while leaning in. Probably so he could breathe-deep the smell of fear emanating from my side of the table.)
Four was the point-- bad odds. And with the hissing snakes waiting for me; their open-collared shirts, sunken eyes and black intentions-- I might have had more momentum swimming against the rip-tide at La Jolla Beach.
The moment when you for the first time, truly respect the power of the Ocean-- is always violent. The Ocean flashes its utter dominance with such flippant ease that you are left unaware of your predicament until your body has already been jackhammered into the rippled sandy bottom.
Now you know how frantic feels and you fight like hell. Eventually, massaging your battered ego, thankful to be alive (also, truly, for the first time), you drag yourself safely to shore.
But my Vegas-buffet-garlic-breath was useless against the undead powers of evil that night in Aladdin's Castle. I crapped out.
Rolling the dice against evil did however show me a glimpse of something. That evil intentions are to be respected (vampires at the crap table and vampires in the stock pit, included). But not the way you respect the Ocean.
Seas swell. Tides come and go like Time itself. Sea-changes are made. These things you can not choose. Evil and Good are.
September 7, 2008
Ground Control To Major Tom
Hunter S. Thompson was a huge NFL football fan back in his day. But now whenever I read the passages where he mentions specific games in books or articles he seems so dated...
Nevertheless, like the Good Doctor, I can't help at times being totally enraptured (speaking in tongues, foaming at the mouth, shaking spastically) by the Sporting event of the day.
Especially now when I can't help but ask the question: What exactly is it about football; High School, College, NFL, and ultimately, Fantasy Football which has America strapped utterly by the Nuts?
Evolution? Tribalism? Boredom? Whatever.
No time for that now... The 2008 season has opened with a litany of self-important stories and I guarantee you there's too-big a pile of money on the line to bother with such questions.
A sizable portion of which--lies on the injured knee of Tom Brady.
Tom Brady.
What is... or ever has been... more American... than this Fucking Guy?
Consider the resume:
-Multiple= Super Bowl Championships x3.
-Gained= favor of adoring fans worldwide
-Gained= favor of Republican President of the United States with invitation to and recognition during the State of The Union Address, 2004.
-Cleft Chin, WASP, tall, handsome.
-Ability= to get best not only out of himself, but the bratty talent around him.
-Multiple= bedded Hottest women on the planet.
-Near perfection= 18-1 record, most TD's thrown in history, 2007.
Tom Brady.
What do the Republicans have on you? You sonofabitch.
..."And yet... Even after he shattered his knee, he didn't give up... He kept fighting. Fighting for the American People. That they too... may rise and face the challenges set before them... And that they too, may someday at least Hope to bed the Hottest Brazilian women on the face of the planet..."
Nevertheless, like the Good Doctor, I can't help at times being totally enraptured (speaking in tongues, foaming at the mouth, shaking spastically) by the Sporting event of the day.
Especially now when I can't help but ask the question: What exactly is it about football; High School, College, NFL, and ultimately, Fantasy Football which has America strapped utterly by the Nuts?
Evolution? Tribalism? Boredom? Whatever.
No time for that now... The 2008 season has opened with a litany of self-important stories and I guarantee you there's too-big a pile of money on the line to bother with such questions.
A sizable portion of which--lies on the injured knee of Tom Brady.
Tom Brady.
What is... or ever has been... more American... than this Fucking Guy?
Consider the resume:
-Multiple= Super Bowl Championships x3.
-Gained= favor of adoring fans worldwide
-Gained= favor of Republican President of the United States with invitation to and recognition during the State of The Union Address, 2004.
-Cleft Chin, WASP, tall, handsome.
-Ability= to get best not only out of himself, but the bratty talent around him.
-Multiple= bedded Hottest women on the planet.
-Near perfection= 18-1 record, most TD's thrown in history, 2007.
Tom Brady.
What do the Republicans have on you? You sonofabitch.
..."And yet... Even after he shattered his knee, he didn't give up... He kept fighting. Fighting for the American People. That they too... may rise and face the challenges set before them... And that they too, may someday at least Hope to bed the Hottest Brazilian women on the face of the planet..."
...I'm Tom Brady, And I Impregnate, This Message.
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